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Early Retirement Extreme Forums » ERE Journals

1. 

   Budro
   

   Novice
   Joined: Jul '10
   Posts: 4

   There must be some doomers reading these forums. I am certainly one. I believe that with global warming, peak oil, and water shortages, our lifestyles will change significantly and many people will struggle to get food and shelter for themselves and their families.

   So, I wonder if ERE is a luxury for a time of great abundance? If we will see the effects of peak oil in a few years like Lloyds of London, the US Military, and others think, wouldn't it be wise to put off retirement and save up as much as possible before the inevitable decline?

   Posted 2 years ago #
2. 

   jacob
   

   Expert
   Joined: Jul '10
   Posts: 3,298

   I'm a reformed doomer. ERE will be useful in the sense that the lifestyle is much more resilient than the middle class consumer. It is my intent that people learn to be resourceful. I think there's a little bit too much focus on saving a sufficiently large portfolio from time to time. No portfolio is safe. Safety is in the skills we carry.

   I think of it as a win-win situation or maybe a win-not lose too much situation. If civilization comes out of this well, the portfolio will carry the day. If it doesn't, it is likely that an ERE minded individual will be a community asset when people don't know how to get a problem solved without pulling out their credit card.

   Posted 2 years ago #
3. 

   jacob
   

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   Joined: Jul '10
   Posts: 3,298

   In terms of the financial aspects ... unless the peak oil/overpopulation/climate change cascade means a return to the dark ages, that is, trade and commerce breaks down, there will be a way to earn interest. It may take a different form. As long as people are on top of things, this will be a great financial opportunity... Let me put that more realistically: wealth will be significantly redistributed.

   I would try to derive some micro behavior out of the Club of Rome models. They seem to have been fairly accurate so far.

   Posted 2 years ago #
4. 

   CestLaVie
   

   Apprentice
   Joined: Jul '10
   Posts: 54

   I agree with Jacob. If the future is not as gloomy as some expect, then the portfolio accumulated by ERE-minded people will put them ahead of most people. If the future is indeed gloomy, then the practical skills developed by ERE-minded people will still put them ahead of most people. I think that ERE and its teachings does prepare us for a wide range of possible scenarios.

   Posted 2 years ago #
5. 

   jacob
   

   Expert
   Joined: Jul '10
   Posts: 3,298

   That said, it would be interesting to know what people are doing knowing what's coming.

   My so far modest efforts involve planning to move to the "north-coastal" US. Getting dual citizenship. Not being car dependent, and not having children(*).

   My food production plans are very much lacking. DW is doing something, but I estimate our current efforts could barely feed us for a day.

   Instead of pursuing the high tech computerization of everything I did a decade ago, I have also flip flopped 100% on technology and I'm now pursuing "hand tools" and human powered solutions as much as possible. (Appropriate technology)

   (*) This is likely equally driven by me not valuing "family" as much as average as much as by science.

   Posted 2 years ago #
6. 

   HSpencer
   

   Master
   Joined: Jul '10
   Posts: 770

   @Budro

   TEOTWAWKI----(The end of the world as we know it). Popular acronym on the internet these days.

   Sure, we can all agree it's coming to some extent. But isn't the question at hand whether or not it is coming naturally, or being "implemented upon us" by TPTB (The powers that be)??

   So you can be either a "Doomer" or a "Conspiracy Theorist".
   (Or both).

   Or as they say at a lot of the CT websites, you can just be a "sheeple".

   Posted 2 years ago #
7. 

   JohnnyH
   

   Expert
   Joined: Jul '10
   Posts: 1,363

   @HSpencer: People usually are sheeple, look no further than finance for ample evidence. The word "conspiracy" has become a mere buzz word designed to control and shut down arguments... With an effective TV PR campaign seems people can be convinced of any ridiculous falsehood. THAT is much closer to the definition of conspiracy than how it is so often misused today.

   @Budro: put off retirement and save up WHAT; currency, equities, gold, tools, land... all of the above? If things really go bad most traditional investments would likely be worthless... If you were wrong, that's life years you'll never get back.

   I live in a sparsely populated area. A cheap, easy and quick way to put myself ahead of 90% of my neighbors was to build a quality reference library on local forage. I'd bet 95% of these food sources are unknown to 98% of the population. Some small protection... But I have no illusion about how incredible difficult it would to thrive on a hunter/gatherer lifestyle. The traditional peoples were incredibly tough and clever.

   Skill, intelligence, luck, preparation, wealth... Probably the most important things is your ability to use your brain and the will to live.

   It depends on the level of the collapse. Here's an interesting breakdown from here:
   http://cluborlov.blogspot.com/2008/02/five-stages-of-collapse.html

   Stages of Collapse

   Stage 1: Financial collapse. Faith in "business as usual" is lost. The future is no longer assumed resemble the past in any way that allows risk to be assessed and financial assets to be guaranteed. Financial institutions become insolvent; savings are wiped out, and access to capital is lost.

   Stage 2: Commercial collapse. Faith that "the market shall provide" is lost. Money is devalued and/or becomes scarce, commodities are hoarded, import and retail chains break down, and widespread shortages of survival necessities become the norm.

   Stage 3: Political collapse. Faith that "the government will take care of you" is lost. As official attempts to mitigate widespread loss of access to commercial sources of survival necessities fail to make a difference, the political establishment loses legitimacy and relevance.

   Stage 4: Social collapse. Faith that "your people will take care of you" is lost, as local social institutions, be they charities or other groups that rush in to fill the power vacuum run out of resources or fail through internal conflict.

   Stage 5: Cultural collapse. Faith in the goodness of humanity is lost. People lose their capacity for "kindness, generosity, consideration, affection, honesty, hospitality, compassion, charity" (Turnbull, The Mountain People). Families disband and compete as individuals for scarce resources. The new motto becomes "May you die today so that I die tomorrow" (Solzhenitsyn, The Gulag Archipelago). There may even be some cannibalism.

   Posted 2 years ago #
8. 

   jacob
   

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   Joined: Jul '10
   Posts: 3,298

   So I submit (based on reading 'A history of interest rates' that the western world has actually never collapsed beyond stage 2 (where commerce has been reduced to armored caravans). That is not to say that the political system can't collapse. It has just never left a vacuum. It has always been replaced with another political entity (e.g. feudal lords and chiefs after the Roman Empire and its finances went down the drain).

   Posted 2 years ago #
9. 

   JohnnyH
   

   Expert
   Joined: Jul '10
   Posts: 1,363

   LOL. I read this in the comments of the 5 stages blog:

   Anonymous said...

   I've always thought the five stages were:

   1. Denial.
   2. Denial.
   3. Denial.
   4. Oh, sh*t.
   5. Too late.

   Posted 2 years ago #
10. 

    jacob
    

    Expert
    Joined: Jul '10
    Posts: 3,298

    Hahahaha... Okay, that is funny!

    (I think the third stage is .. "Maybe I should say something, but nobody else is, so I'll just shut up too.")

    Posted 2 years ago #
11. 

    pbkennedy
    

    Novice
    Joined: Jul '10
    Posts: 11

    So Jacob, are you moving to Maine? That is where DH and I are headed in four years. To a log cabin in the woods, literally. Self-sufficiency and frugality are treasured there. You will like it. Paula

    Posted 2 years ago #
12. 

    jacob
    

    Expert
    Joined: Jul '10
    Posts: 3,298

    Oregon, Washington, Vermont, New Hampshire, or Maine.

    One of those ...

    Posted 2 years ago #
13. 

    Budro
    

    Novice
    Joined: Jul '10
    Posts: 4

    Suppose I phrase the question like this:

    Suppose you have already reached the point that you can retire. Believing there to be a global economic slide beginning in a few years (if not already begun), do you continue to work to build up more assets or retire now? The extra assets could be considered a doomy day fund.

    Looking at the above responses to my originally phrased question, I think that everyone would retire now.
    Jacob and CestLaVie feel that even in a downturn, ones existing assets can still provide income, food, etc.
    It sounds like JohnnyH thinks working extra is a gamble that most likely will not pay off.

    Being fiscally conservative, I'm inclined to continue working. I am probably at the ER point (not ERE because I am 46). I am definitely working for 6 more months, but I am thinking of switching to a less unpleasant job and if I do I will commit myself to it for two years.

    As for preparing, I have rural forest land and have started an orchard with apple, cherry, plum, prune, and fig trees. I too have foraging and am working on identifying the plants on my property. Unfortunately I can identify stinging nettle way too well. I plan on building an earth-sheltered cabin with an earthen roof and a rocket mass heater once I retire. With the cabin, I could sell my mortgage-free house and be very FI. I don't expect a sudden collapse, but my several hundred pounds of rice, beans, and wheat is cheap insurance. Finally, I have a couple rifles and handguns and am learning how to shoot them. Shooting is a hobby and is fun in a mindless way.

    Posted 2 years ago #
14. 

    jacob
    

    Expert
    Joined: Jul '10
    Posts: 3,298

    It depends on how you define assets. I consider my primary asset to

    0) Being healthy (a biggie!!)
    1) Being able to spend very little to satisfy needs.
    2) Being able to make money in at least 3 different ways.

    The important thing is having many tricks up one's sleeve and being resilient. I think this is safer than "bigger and stronger" so to speak.

    My ultimate goal is not to depend on money at all although I realize that for some things it is the only way and in other ways, buying is more efficient, e.g. it's more efficient to buy a microwave oven than making your own.

    In other words, there are many different kinds of capital. Our current worlds holds monetary capital in the highest regard believing that it can substitute for pretty much any other kind of capital. This will not always hold true. My goal is to diversify into as many different kinds of capital as possible.
    (More about that in Section 4.1 of the book. I can't wait until it gets out :) ).

    Posted 2 years ago #
15. 

    George the original one
    

    Expert
    Joined: Jul '10
    Posts: 1,941

    If decline is rapid, then mobility and flexibility are most important. If decline is slow, then life assets (food/shelter/skills) are most important. Concentrate on the latter and have a plan for the former.

    Posted 2 years ago #
16. 

    jacob
    

    Expert
    Joined: Jul '10
    Posts: 3,298

    According to the Club of Rome model the world decline will take 20-30 years. Of course political and economical choices could make this faster or slower on a local scale. Preparation being all about making it slower of course.

    Posted 2 years ago #
17. 

    CestLaVie
    

    Apprentice
    Joined: Jul '10
    Posts: 54

    @Budro, personally I think that once you can live comfortably on a SWR of 3%, working a few more years to further lower your SWR and insure against every possible eventuality might become counter-productive. If civilization really falls, I don't think it will make a difference whether you have $1M or $10M in the bank. What will make a difference is whether you have the knowledge and experience to grow your own food, hunt, forage, mend tools, prepare simple herbal remedies to treat common ailments, and administer basic medical care without relying on a doctor. If civilization does not fall, then I feel like a 3% SWR will carry me through a lot of unpleasantness.

    Posted 2 years ago #
18. 

    HSpencer
    

    Master
    Joined: Jul '10
    Posts: 770

    Looking at everything, the future casts a less than optimistic shadow.
    I was born in 1945, just prior to the end of WWII. I came on the scene so to speak AFTER Two (2) World Wars, and one (1) Great Depression. I am 65 now. My lifetime was the thrust of the greatest moving prosperity the United States has seen. However, although I missed the wars and depression, I was close enough to those who went through them to have been well briefed on what it was like. I often ask myself "why" was I born just right to get the good slice of it all? If I live until 2020, and nothing bad happens, then I will have been here at the right time. If we go economic collapse, or WWIII or both, prior to my death, then I, too, will see some of it, although it will be easier for me to take as I have little time left. However, I must see my children and grandchildren have to face another round of hard times.
    While it is hard for me to be pessimistic, I do have some preparations and talk preps to my kids.
    I am positioned to survive a good while, but I am afraid for their not thinking closely enough about the future.
    I do not think doom and gloom. However, I am becoming more and more tuned to the conspiracy side of the house, and less to poor choices and inadequate planning by the government we have now. I wish I did not think that way, but it's sort of in our face now.

    Posted 2 years ago #
19. 

    MidwestHomebody
    

    Apprentice
    Joined: Jul '10
    Posts: 42

    My dad has some land he's living on in Upper Michigan. If things go from bad to worse, that's my fall-back position. I still have some hunting, fishing, and farming skills from growing up despite my citified ways.

    Posted 2 years ago #
20. 

    The Dude
    

    Master
    Joined: Jul '10
    Posts: 392

    I don't think it makes sense to save any longer for a collapse. It only reaffirms that we should retire while the monetary system is still in tact.

    If business breaks down and farming is not taking place and bread is not being made, even gold will be worthless. The only reason luxury and wants are worth anything is because everyone's needs are being meet.

    If there was a modern day famine, from a bug that couldn't be killed or water shortage, it would not be surprising to see the monetary system fall. All of society is based off abundant food and water(another concern is that all the crops in America are almost all the same, more possible for a widespread dissaster). Lack of food or central bank hacking could well destroy the existing monetary system.

    I believe something like this will not ruin the richest or the government. The richest will be fine because that have enough hard assests that hold value (even scrap products hold value). The government will be fine because they basically can enslave the population in a time of crisis through shear force and they can justify if by saying people are stealing...food? Does anyone think a couple of shot guns can hold ground against the bullet proof vehicles and armour that we send to the gulf? How about a missle? The bad part is that if there is a crises, do you think anyone with the sercurity of a government job would risk it to ensure that justice is taking place? Or will they follow orders?

    I think a crises of this scale might provide the "powers that be" to finally change the freedom and anonymity of paper money to an electronic chip to help keep everyone "safe" from credit fraud or to track food rations. Then force all of society to accept the chip or be forced outside of the monetary system (I am also sure they would create laws that keep people from using other currency...I think it is called the IRS?)

    I would like to think if something as "crazy" as this ever happened we could live in the hills, but I think the authorities would eventually come looking, just like they paint any other group that lives in the hills and doesn't pay taxes as "crazy people" while they show us one sided views of the stand off:)

    How about that for Doom! :) That doesn't even address what I think about Peak oil or global warming. Peak oil is coming, but I think it will take decades before it begins to collapse anything. I believe the sun causes more global warming than humans could ever hope to compare with and I believe most change is related to its activity, but I agree that it is a fact that all enery conversion releases heat and the chemical we release increase the problem.

    Posted 2 years ago #
21. 

    jacob
    

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    Joined: Jul '10
    Posts: 3,298

    @Matthew - Aside from the part about global warming (where 99.9..% of scientists disagree with you), I agree with everything you just said.

    If the zombie apocalypse appears, there will probably be anti-hoarding laws and confiscation by the government and lawless confiscation from neighbors, etc.

    (And the hills will be full of people who have taken to the hills.)

    I think a realistic idea of what to expect from an economic collapse can be had from Ferfal's blog (and book).

    To summarize: If someone breaks into your house to steal your food, the police is not likely to have the resources to prevent that. If you defend your stash with a gun, they still have the resources to show up later and arrest you for murder. In addition, a substantial number of cops/authorities are likely to go corrupt. The only capital that's hard to take away is "skill" and "connections". I'd concentrate on those.

    Posted 2 years ago #
22. 

    djc
    

    Journeyman
    Joined: Jul '10
    Posts: 126

    This is a great thread.

    I believe the whole concept of a huge, or even substantial, portfolio as necessary for ERE to be somewhat in question. CD rates are 1.00%, the market could tank, gold doesn't return interest etc.... If the economy continues on its present course few, if any investments will pan out. However, friendship, altruism and rootedness, along with a valuable skillset will provide real security. Am I saying not to have a portfolio/savings/paid off house or residence? No not at all, I am saying to not put too much faith in these things----everything could, and probably will change.

    Jacob, have you ever thought about living in the Great Lakes region? Other than the massive amounts of snow we get its a really nice place to live.

    I love reading these posts.

    djc

    Posted 2 years ago #
23. 

    The Dude
    

    Master
    Joined: Jul '10
    Posts: 392

    Ya, I am probably underestimating mans ability to rape the planet. In general, global warming is a scientific fact if you look at it from laws of thermodynamics, but I have also seen things that supposedly show the planet being just as warm centuries ago...supposedly due to sun activity...not sure how anyone would know what the weather was back then without any doubts. I have also seen things that say the solar energy that hits one state could meet all our energy requirements and cow flatulents contributes more than cars? I necessarily don't believe everything I read, but I also think there is a lot of incentive for the scientific field to "prove" global warming to "impose" the carbon tax. Not that carbon tax is all bad. Something needs to hinder the plunder. I believe the government will always support efforts that bring more money and power to itself.

    Science tell us that sun will eventually destroy our planet as it dies, but without it we definitely would not have to worry about global warming:)

    I definitely agree that global warming is happening though. I am just not yet convince of the cause. Either way, I think our polar caps are screwed.

    Posted 2 years ago #
24. 

    Cashflow
    

    Apprentice
    Joined: Aug '10
    Posts: 97

    Here is an interesting 90-minute presentation of Russian life after its collapse: Dmitry Orlov: Social Collapse Best Practices

    There is much in common with ERE in terms of knowing how to live with minimal resources.

    Posted 2 years ago #
25. 

    seba
    

    Novice
    Joined: Oct '10
    Posts: 7

    The World Energy Outlook says: "The eventual peak in oil will be determined by factors affecting both demand and supply. In the New Policies Scenario, production in total does not peak before 2035, though it comes close to doing so. By contrast, in the 450 Scenario, production does peak, at 86 mb/d, just before 2020, as a result of weaker demand, falling briskly thereafter."

    In this pdf is the following graph shown:
    
    Better hope that they find enough fields in the future.

    Posted 2 years ago #
26. 

    HSpencer
    

    Master
    Joined: Jul '10
    Posts: 770

    There are a lot of peak oil people on the forum. I may be one of them, having read "The Coming Economic Collapse, How You Can Survive When Oil is $200.00 a Barrel", by Stephen Leeb, PhD. The scenarios in this book are well researched, and factual.

    I am more concerned about the first F-16 from Israel, crossing the Iranian Border, than I am running "out" of oil. In the war scenario, we would see economic collapse at oil >$400 a barrel.

    Posted 2 years ago #
27. 

    Robert Muir
    

    Journeyman
    Joined: Jul '10
    Posts: 280

    I don't know if it would entail collapse, but it would definitely spur alternative energies. :)

    Posted 2 years ago #
28. 

    dragoncar
    

    Expert
    Joined: Oct '10
    Posts: 1,287

    I'm going to slightly disagree with the majority opinion here. CestLaVie said that it won't make a difference if you have $1M or $10M in the bank. This is technically true. But if you had $10M before the collapse, you could probably set up a bunker in the country with enough to keep you alive for the rest of your life, and/or long enough to learn what you need to know from the library in the bunker. At the margin, the question becomes whether X dollars per year can buy enough of a stockpile to offset the benefits of one year of learning. I think for most people, it can. Lets say the average ERE'er saves 30k/year. That could probably buy a lifetime supply of basic food, or a bunker in the country, or a water storage tank, or a lifetime supply of guns and ammo, etc. (but not all those things at once). So after a few extra years, you could have a very cozy end of the world setup going. If you save the proper literature, you can learn the necessary skills after the apocalypse comes, while you live on the reserve. I guess it seems to me that if you actually think there's a significant chance of this happening, you should keep working and start planning your bunker. If you spend a little time putting together your doomsday team, you can populate the bunker with a variety of useful skill sets as well.

    For me, I work under the assumption that society will not collapse, as if it does the chances are I will not live (or want to live) through that collapse. This is similar to my working assumption that the earth will not be hit by an extinction-level meteor, that the technological singularity will not come, and that I am not in the Matrix. Because there's basically nothing I can do about any of that. So maybe my only doomsday investment should be cyanide pills.

    Posted 2 years ago #
29. 

    RobBennett
    

    Journeyman
    Joined: Aug '10
    Posts: 120

    My take is a bit more optimistic than most of the ones I see in the thread.

    I don't rule out the possibility that everything could go down.

    But I believe that we have huge potential to bring about the greatest period of economic and cultural growth we have ever seen. We need to work up the will to get over obstacles standing in our way to make use of it. But the potential is there.

    It could be that, once things go down enough to scare people into action, we will turn things around. It would be nice if it didn't take a good scare to get things moving forward again. But sometimes that is what it takes.

    Rob

    Posted 2 years ago #
30. 

    JoeNCA
    

    Apprentice
    Joined: Aug '10
    Posts: 81

    Before any of the social collapse theories bear fruit, most likely a war will erupt well beforehand to predetermine the course of many. Always has.

    In such a scenario, medium of storage for savings should be more hard (commodities that are valuable and immediately useful) than soft (cash, stocks, bonds, etc.).

    Posted 2 years ago #
31. 

    ktn
    

    Journeyman
    Joined: Jul '10
    Posts: 116

    Straight from the horse's mouth?

    Wikileaks cables reveal the possibility of Saudi peak oil as early as 2012:
    http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2011/feb/08/saudi-oil-reserves-overstated-wikileaks

    Posted 2 years ago #
32. 

    jacob
    

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    Joined: Jul '10
    Posts: 3,298

    That OPEC has overstated their reserves (technically, they stated them once and never subtracted their subsequent production) has been known by the peak oil community for at least 15 years (e.g. Lahere and Campbell). I have known about it myself for 10 years.

    Posted 2 years ago #
33. 

    JeremyS
    

    Apprentice
    Joined: Jan '11
    Posts: 34

    I think that it is worth pointing to some specific information on the graph posted by seba above from the International Energy Agency. The graph shows that CRUDE OIL peaked in 2006 and is dive-bombing from here on in. The fluff that makes it look on the rosy side is mostly "yet to be discovered" and "yet to be developed". This is scary business for an oil-dependent culture. Here is a good summary of the report.

    Posted 2 years ago #
34. 

    jeremymday
    

    Journeyman
    Joined: Oct '10
    Posts: 132

    When the U.S. was seeing gas prices of $4 a gallon and oil was up near the $200 mark, I read that the high prices were created by a false demand from heavy trading on oil futures...

    Around the same time, or possibly from the same source, I read about an economist who said that supply and demand should peg the price around $2.60 a gallon...

    After those high prices gas by the gallon dropped to about $2.30. (Down to $1.99 per gallon in some places), and it has slowly crept back up.

    We are currently breaking the $3 per gallon mark and I think this time around we will reach $4 per gallon much more slowly...

    So slowly people don't make fuss about it...

    Demand keeps going up as a worldwide average, even if the U.S. is using less. Supplies keep going down...

    Higher prices are inevitable...

    Best quote I've heard in awhile...

    "All booms bust. The only question is when."

    Posted 2 years ago #
35. 

    jacob
    

    Expert
    Joined: Jul '10
    Posts: 3,298

    The largest global consumer group is the US middle class. Hence, the ceiling is somewhat set by what they can afford or are willing to pay. This in turn makes oil cheaper for people who can afford more since we all pay the same price. If another group enters and displaces the US middle class, prepare for the anguished howling as a new and higher resistance level is found.

    Posted 2 years ago #
36. 

    HSpencer
    

    Master
    Joined: Jul '10
    Posts: 770

    Well we are seeing many signs of it actually being the end of the world as many know it.
    We seem to be stuck on Three Dollars, or it seems to me so. A recent trip for supplies saw $3.00(+) gasoline and $3.00 a pound ground beef, and $3.00 for three oranges and $3.00 for a few apples, and so on.
    So what is $3.00 to our average family of four? Well, they are on the margin already, before the three dollar mark started to envelope them. You all know the pie chart for the median income family of four. Inflation is/has taking it's ugly toll.
    Nothing just yet to totally wipe them out. The wipe outs are usually mounting bills and expenses not even on the pie chart, the so called "emergency fund" items for which there is no emergency funds left. Doctor, dentist, repairs, (you can also add weather related unplanned expenses like getting your car towed out of a ditch you slid in because if you didn't try to get to work you would lose your job type expense. Picture the manager who tells them "If you can't make it work we will find someone who can")
    So that is where the $3.00 or $3.50, or some other climber figure will assist in the wipe out. You have to realize people are already maintaining an unsustainable financial posture. Then you take gasoline from $2.69 a gallon to $3.29 a gallon, and groceries up even 6% across the board and your pie chart pressure goes too high. Let's say the median income for the family of four is $45,000 before taxes and $39,000 after ducts.
    How far can that 39K travel over the course of a year with wisdom teeth surgeries and new four wheel drive Dodge big ram trucks? How about a $900.00 Superbowl ticket or two? Don't flinch, some people thought nothing about buying those.
    I think the culprit may be oil eventually, but you really need to consider everything, including greed.
    You will find it's great to be frugal!

    Posted 2 years ago #
37. 

    Surio
    

    Sorcerer
    Joined: Dec '10
    Posts: 601

    I had just written in my own blog on the contrasts between modern reaction to natural disasters and previous generations' reactions to disasters in worser situations. Then I log into the forum and discover this interesting old thread has been revisited. Ha!

    Questions/Comments - Responses and extra thoughts are appreciated:
    1. Just who qualifies to be a "reformed doomer"? :-)
    2. Jacob wrote "Unless we return to the dark ages, there will be a way to earn interest." I am a little bit woolly today, care to elaborate a little on that Jacob? Even reading material pointer is fine. :-)
    3. "derive some micro behavior out of the Club of Rome models". I was always interested in this. But using what? Matlab? C++? ODEs?
    4. Speaking of North Coastal USA, I always used to look up SaltSpring Island as a fantasy getaway :-D!
    5. I agree with "hand powered"; I commented on "pedal power" recently here. ;-) All said though Jacob, You'd still make one helluva "father figure" for children. Just my thought ;-)
    6. I agree on the comment "95% of local food sources are unknown to 98% of the population" :-( This is true ALL over the world today. Milk comes in bottles and chicken comes from shops! I myself wouldn't last one meal as a forager! My kitten did better than me in finding a mouse during a walk!
    7. I agree on Jacob's remark of feudal/plutocratic/oligarchic systems replacing the current state of affairs (at least in India, where goons+politics seems to go hand-in-hand), but then again there's no saying how public mood will shape things to come. Doombat scenarios aside, there was this film that showed glimpses of a dystopian future. They ran out of budget and didn't finish it properly, but it is still a good watch.
    8. My own headache is to identify a somewhat sparse ERE-supporting location in India now! Damn! No mean feat with our population density and climactic harshness! But there are people starting this kind of thing here too! :-|
    9. "The important thing is having many tricks up one's sleeve and being resilient." - This is a common theme of discussion and came up recently in another thread too (Piper's?)
    10. Yes, peak oil reserves is definitely a can of Worms. I've been aware of this for some 7 years already. I remember the BBC website put a news story in 2005 about Dubai running out of oil by 2015, and then proceeded to take it out completely within the next 2 days. I didn't save that page, and I am still looking for it!
    11. @Spencer, Yesterday @Maus spoke of inflation in the blog, and today, you! I didn't expect food volatility to hit USA like this! Now I'm afraid. I'm very, very afraid.
    12. India is sitting on a powderbox as far as water shortages are concerned! We'll hit that before water wars, I think!
    13. @Jacob - "Being able to make money in at least 3 different ways." Ha! I'm also looking for that holy grail myself ;-)

    And thanks for some additional reading provided here. I visit Orlov occasionally (I knew him from Matt Savinar's forums)!

    Posted 2 years ago #
38. 

    HSpencer
    

    Master
    Joined: Jul '10
    Posts: 770

    @Surio

    As you probably saw from my post, here in the USA it is not so much the cost of food (who really cares what three oranges cost on a day to day basis?) but, however the accumulation factor. I must admit I never gave much thought to food prices. I just liked to eat. Now that I involve myself so much more in figuring things out, and how things affect our lives, I have to say the grocery store is pretty lethal to the old monthly budget. Two years ago I probably couldn't have told you the cost of a dozen eggs, or a gallon of milk. Today, it seems I can do that. Yes, food is becoming a big factor here.

    Posted 2 years ago #
39. 

    Chad
    

    Expert
    Joined: Jul '10
    Posts: 1,002

    I don't see the end of the world scenarios happening. Drastic changes? Yes, but there are always "calm" times interspaced with large changes. Those large changes are not always devastatingly bad, such as the industrial revolution (yes, there is bad stuff from this, but it's not even close to the bad that would happen if society actually collapsed).

    Peak oil seems legit, though predicting it accurately will be tough. Climate change (global warming is a misnomer). Outsourcing is hurting the U.S. middle class. Barriers to trade are still falling. Large companies no longer call one country home. A global professional class less concerned with what country they are from is being created. Depletion of rare earth elements..etc.

    Sure, all of this will cause pain, but it will also create new ways to do things. The Western world, and specifically the U.S., has forgotten how much they can accomplish if they are willing. We are too soft and too comfortable. A little forced ERE will do us good in the long run.

    Posted 2 years ago #
40. 

    mikeBOS
    

    Master
    Joined: Nov '10
    Posts: 554

    I don't see the end of the world scenarios happening. Drastic changes? Yes, but...

    I think in some people's minds "drastic changes" and "end of the world" are one in the same.

    We are too soft and too comfortable.

    Too comfortable??? No such thing.

    Posted 2 years ago #

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