Early Retirement Extreme Forums

@Fish Would you agree that ERE is a three-legged stool? -a robust portfolio -willingness/ability to work -minimal dependence on cash Each serves to cover the other two in event of failure. @bryan The simplifying assumptions of Trinity-inspired studies are a useful yardstick, since anyone with dynami...

Tyler9000, what Asset Allocation performs best on the Financial Independence calculator? (lowest Maximum time to FI) I would assume it is the one with the highest perpetual withdrawal rate, and the lowest volatility. Probably resembling the Golden Butterfly. Also, is there any reason the Portfolio F...

@oldbeyond You left out the most useful takeaway from the series. Namely that he supports a 3%SWR for a 60y retirement. (Actually, a 3.25%SWR , and apparently using only US broad market equity-only index funds.) Very encouraging for indexers. To the discussion I'll add: https://personal.vanguard.com...

http://www.tradersnarrative.com/wp-content/uploads/2009/03/SP500%20inflation%20adjusted%20long%20term%20chart.png This is S&P adjusted to CPI. @jennypenny's second chart above indicates that the ~1979 and ~1929 dips were similar. But they aren't when measured against COL in household staples, o...

@Fish First, refer to akratic's chart wrt SWR: http://forum.earlyretirementextreme.com/viewtopic.php?p=28301#p28301 Notice that 25 years worth of expenses (4%SWR) lasts 30 years if you only get a 1.22% return. Thrity three years worth of expenses (3%SWR) lasts 40 years with a less than 1% return. Es...

I may have misread your previous comment. It seemed you were equating the fifth condition with contraction of the credit cycle, which is a condition amenable to holding cash. I've seen the fifth condition termed "loose money," but mostly seems to be described as "I-don't-know-what-it-...

Is cash, then, the only winning investment just prior to unwinding debt?

For impeachment to succeed in removing the president from office, a supermajority of both houses have to agree that he committed high crimes and misdemeanors worthy of removing him. For that to occur, it has to be politically sound and virtually certain of success. IOW, enough senators and congressm...

How likely is it that American investments overseas will be nationalized by Russia, China, or others in the event our relation with them sours? Bannon is anti china, pro war. And the Russia bromance strikes me as unstable. Furthermore, mainstream EU is placing Trump on their "threat list."...

So Jacob is in the "no" camp. Most successful people show some promise early on. Most unsuccessful people don't.

Anecdotally, it seems significant that these stories gain attention because they're so rare.

Alpha strategy is essentially BIFL everything.(BEFL?)

How far can this strategy be pushed? (Beyond house, canned food/garden, toothpaste/consumables, two spare generators+fuel, etc.)

What other types of necessities can be stockpiled?

The common threads in your reading list are: 1)Buy income producing assets 2)Frugality/Distinguishing between needs and wants 3)Find unconventional/nonfinancial ways of meeting needs and wants With varying emphasis on each of them. Successful financial literature also has to [at least appear to] be ...

When Tim Ferriss interviewed Peter Thiel, he asked why cant you accomplish your 10yr goal in the next six months? This sort of talk sells a lot of books, but I'm curious how realistic it is. Thiel and Ferriss were both objectively successful at a young age. But their stories appeal to older, less ac...

I don't know what generation the OP refers too, but I've seen stocks and bonds (and real estate, but I don't invest in RE) go up and down multiple times. We all have. Haven't you met anyone who puts faith in index investing? Or precious metals? Or anyone with loads of treasuries and mattress-cash, ...

@bryan Why do you think commodities are underrated? Do you mean just relatively undervalued compared to stocks and bonds? What about international sovereign bonds and international real-estate as a point of comparison? Tell me about the _many_ opportunities for people prepared for this "access-...

I am not just interested in how to apply this knowledge to practical life situations, but also to better understand how the legal system interacts with the societal system as a whole. Tax law, and who benefits from it. Certain types of businesses and business practices have vastly more favorable ta...

+1 to Just get through the meeting. For now. When it comes time to negotiate, I highly recommend reading some Chris Voss. He's a former FBI hostage negotiator who writes about applying his skillset to business. If you are on ERE forums, you probably have some FU money saved up. You also have a secon...

Have information that other people don't have or are misinformed about is how its usually done in terms of "trading". This is often accomplished through having the latest and greatest technology to access information quicker than others. At one time on Wall Street that was a telephone and...

Seems like most great fortunes are a result of some sort of voluntary or involuntary wealth transfer. For example, convince millions of people that they need a palm-sized super-computer, a house and car that cost more than they'll make in a year, etc. Then supplying the credit to afford them. Altern...

A generation of Americans has been raised to believe that stocks and real estate always go up, and everyone should have a portfolio of stocks and bonds. As a result, those assets are very over priced in aggregate. Gold and silver are also very popular, it seems. So, I'm curious, what if any alternat...