Search found 645 matches

by JL13
Thu Aug 27, 2020 4:21 pm
Forum: ERE Journals
Topic: JL's journal
Replies: 55
Views: 15415

Re: JL's journal

[redacted]
by JL13
Thu Aug 27, 2020 4:19 pm
Forum: ERE Journals
Topic: JL's journal
Replies: 55
Views: 15415

Re: JL's journal

[redacted]
by JL13
Thu Aug 27, 2020 4:17 pm
Forum: ERE Journals
Topic: JL's journal
Replies: 55
Views: 15415

Re: JL's journal

[redacted]
by JL13
Thu Aug 27, 2020 4:15 pm
Forum: ERE Journals
Topic: JL's journal
Replies: 55
Views: 15415

Re: JL's journal

[redacted]
by JL13
Fri Aug 14, 2020 10:36 am
Forum: Health and Food Questions
Topic: COVID-19
Replies: 3436
Views: 483767

Re: COVID-19

reopening with suppression and contact tracing. Is there any govt that has successfully contact traced the majority of cases, or this a theoretical goal? In my city, R0 has been below 1 for a couple months, we have the manpower to contact trace 100% of cases, yet we can only identify less than 5%. ...
by JL13
Mon Jul 27, 2020 10:50 am
Forum: Health and Food Questions
Topic: COVID-19
Replies: 3436
Views: 483767

Re: COVID-19

I"m confused about the timeframe. I think Phase 3 trials require a 2 year period by the FDA? So if they start today then that's July 2022. Yet the news outlets are repeatedly saying a vaccine could be available in winter or early 2021? How does that work?
by JL13
Sat May 30, 2020 9:02 am
Forum: Money and Investment Questions
Topic: 1 Jacob Adjusted For Inflation (JAFI)
Replies: 213
Views: 880346

Re: 1 Jacob Adjusted For Inflation (JAFI)

I think GDP/CAPITA is a better estimate of the value of money than CPI. It reflects the influence of your money in society. Also gonna propose, since we're looking at this through strictly the financial lens, that we use the Shiller PE10 to multiply out how much invested assets are required to provi...
by JL13
Sun May 24, 2020 9:16 am
Forum: Health and Food Questions
Topic: COVID-19
Replies: 3436
Views: 483767

Re: COVID-19

@7wannabe5 I think some of the people in the "open up" camp believe that the 1-2%(or whatever percentage) of people who are going to die are going to die anyway. The lockdowns haven't been very effective in stoping the deaths, just slowing them. The United States was effectively under a st...
by JL13
Wed May 20, 2020 7:46 am
Forum: Health and Food Questions
Topic: COVID-19
Replies: 3436
Views: 483767

Re: COVID-19

@George the original one Republican party has recruited 27 doctors willing to go on camera and say that [driving] does not pose a threat to the average American as part of a push to fully open the economy. These doctors have been vetted to be fully supportive of President Trump. Apparently the avera...
by JL13
Sun May 17, 2020 11:56 am
Forum: Health and Food Questions
Topic: COVID-19
Replies: 3436
Views: 483767

Re: COVID-19

@Jacob To see if I'm understanding this correctly: 1.) Assuming everyone manages to keep Rt around 1, how long would it take for it to spread through the whole population? If each person infects just one more person, and we start with, say 1% of the population infected. Then every 14 days another 1%...
by JL13
Sun May 17, 2020 8:16 am
Forum: Health and Food Questions
Topic: COVID-19
Replies: 3436
Views: 483767

Re: COVID-19

While we're back on the subject of herd immunity for a moment...can someone help me understand something? Once we reach herd immunity with zero social distancing - so 60%-75% of the population or whatever - does that mean the virus *dies out*, or does it switch from epidemic to endemic? Surely, even...
by JL13
Sat May 16, 2020 11:30 am
Forum: Health and Food Questions
Topic: COVID-19
Replies: 3436
Views: 483767

Re: COVID-19

A Spanish serology (IgM and IgG) study ... shows that 5% have been infected at some point "The study also shows lower prevalence figures among children than among adults: 1.1% of babies under one year of age had antibodies against the coronavirus; for children between one and four years old, t...
by JL13
Thu May 14, 2020 5:58 pm
Forum: Health and Food Questions
Topic: COVID-19
Replies: 3436
Views: 483767

Re: COVID-19

@C_L

Don't forget to ask about sensitivity too.

https://www.evaluate.com/vantage/articl ... ic-problem
by JL13
Thu May 14, 2020 3:43 pm
Forum: Health and Food Questions
Topic: COVID-19
Replies: 3436
Views: 483767

Re: COVID-19

@classical_liberal I considered it, but most of them are too inaccurate to be worth it IMO. The new Roche one is more accurate, and I'm definitely interested in getting once it's available NYC update: So a nice summary of all of the IFR estimates is here: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1zC3k...
by JL13
Thu May 14, 2020 9:17 am
Forum: Health and Food Questions
Topic: COVID-19
Replies: 3436
Views: 483767

Re: COVID-19

7Wannabe5 wrote:
Wed May 13, 2020 3:10 pm
Maybe some administrator would like to cut Covid thread into separate Science/Policy/Experience-Journal threads?
+1. Can we split one off strictly discussing IFR and infection estimates/projections? I'd like a thread without all the moralizing....
by JL13
Thu Apr 23, 2020 4:35 pm
Forum: Health and Food Questions
Topic: COVID-19
Replies: 3436
Views: 483767

Re: COVID-19

@bigato Yeah. I would imagine if it got extremely deadly, while remaining as contagious, then you'd see a massive outflow of people from dense cities into the country. You would see states/cities attempting border closures. We'd want to crate a lot of little New Zealands in the USA. Except without t...
by JL13
Thu Apr 23, 2020 4:09 pm
Forum: Health and Food Questions
Topic: COVID-19
Replies: 3436
Views: 483767

Re: COVID-19

OK, so it seems you guys are arguing that, while containment may be possible at the beginning, once community transmission is reached and a lockdown becomes necessary, the numbers will never go down to the level where a containment strategy becomes viable (unless herd immunity is reached first). Do...
by JL13
Thu Apr 23, 2020 3:24 pm
Forum: Health and Food Questions
Topic: COVID-19
Replies: 3436
Views: 483767

Re: COVID-19

@Ego and @Augustus That's my take. This thing is so freaking contagious that it's not containable. I mean there have been reports that it is spreading through the wastewater pipes in apartment buildings! As in, someone who lives 8 stories below you flushes the toilet and it aerosolizes your bathroom...
by JL13
Wed Apr 22, 2020 11:08 am
Forum: Health and Food Questions
Topic: COVID-19
Replies: 3436
Views: 483767

Re: COVID-19

And that is considering that nyc have had 100% of its population exposed by now, which is not likely (because they are in lockdown for a while). It's possible that NYC is closer to being 100% exposed by now, because the metro was still running during lockdown, and they REDUCED the train frequency, ...
by JL13
Tue Apr 21, 2020 7:13 pm
Forum: Health and Food Questions
Topic: COVID-19
Replies: 3436
Views: 483767

Re: COVID-19

JL13 mentioned above that that R0 would be 1.15 in current lockdown conditions That was what I inferred from the Mayor's projection for DC only. It should be different from NY: http://systrom.com That preliminary German study that Jacob linked showed a mortality rate of 0.4%. Where does that put us...