Search found 1557 matches

by IlliniDave
Fri Jun 23, 2017 3:11 pm
Forum: Money Questions
Topic: Actual ways in which a large Index Fund / ETF could "blow up"
Replies: 44
Views: 1431

Re: Actual ways in which a large Index Fund / ETF could "blow up"

@brighteye Thanks for the link. I shouldn't be surprised at this point that Jacob seems to be so damn right all the time. But I still have some fear about choosing individual securities instead of diversified funds. Epistemologically, I have know way of knowing which quadrant I'm in: 1) Those who k...
by IlliniDave
Fri Jun 23, 2017 2:31 pm
Forum: Money Questions
Topic: Actual ways in which a large Index Fund / ETF could "blow up"
Replies: 44
Views: 1431

Re: Actual ways in which a large Index Fund / ETF could "blow up"

Define market. VTSAX doesn't have much exposure to small business/startups (or other private companies) or international companies; except by way of inter-connectedness and second order effects etc.. Sigh. In the context of VTSAX (and SP500) market = US stock market . In the context of mutual funds...
by IlliniDave
Thu Jun 22, 2017 7:43 am
Forum: Money Questions
Topic: Actual ways in which a large Index Fund / ETF could "blow up"
Replies: 44
Views: 1431

Re: Actual ways in which a large Index Fund / ETF could "blow up"

Example scenario; Stock market crashes, and all the other passive investors start selling gold and bonds to rebalance before you do. Simultaneously, a bunch of scaredy cats go straight to cash under the mattress. By the time you log into your broker, there are no buyers for you to sell any equity o...
by IlliniDave
Thu Jun 22, 2017 7:27 am
Forum: Money Questions
Topic: Actual ways in which a large Index Fund / ETF could "blow up"
Replies: 44
Views: 1431

Re: Actual ways in which a large Index Fund / ETF could "blow up"

Also worth noting: it seems like most of the actively managed mutual funds have been doing mostly "closet indexing", because they're incentivized to do so by being compared to the benchmark at all times. It makes sense and it would explain why they vastly underperformed index funds in the last 15-2...
by IlliniDave
Wed Jun 21, 2017 6:05 pm
Forum: Money Questions
Topic: Actual ways in which a large Index Fund / ETF could "blow up"
Replies: 44
Views: 1431

Re: Actual ways in which a large Index Fund / ETF could "blow up"

add emphasis on funds but really it's not the case. The funds are implementation defined methodology whereas the index methodology itself is defined and is used as the benchmark for tracking error for the funds. I admit I don't dig into the stuff in depth/breadth though. > but they aren't lists of ...
by IlliniDave
Wed Jun 21, 2017 1:58 pm
Forum: Money Questions
Topic: Actual ways in which a large Index Fund / ETF could "blow up"
Replies: 44
Views: 1431

Re: Actual ways in which a large Index Fund / ETF could "blow up"

@IlliniDave, I'm not so sure. When a company is added/removed from an index there is usually some significant movement of that stock in the couple months before/after. ... I'm not convinced, going-forward, that index methodologies will provide the best performance. ... I suspect the winning formula...
by IlliniDave
Tue Jun 20, 2017 8:13 pm
Forum: Money Questions
Topic: Actual ways in which a large Index Fund / ETF could "blow up"
Replies: 44
Views: 1431

Re: Actual ways in which a large Index Fund / ETF could "blow up"

People who buy the index then overpay for those few issues. If the market crashes, then those overvalued issues will crash far harder than the rest of the market and drive the index down as much as they previously drove it up. Meanwhile, those who stayed out or timed correctly will see their portfo...
by IlliniDave
Tue Jun 20, 2017 1:54 pm
Forum: Money Questions
Topic: Actual ways in which a large Index Fund / ETF could "blow up"
Replies: 44
Views: 1431

Re: Actual ways in which a large Index Fund / ETF could "blow up"

I suspect the proportional "pressure" they put on the different segments of the market is becoming increasingly uniform. This is exactly what I'm questioning. It may be true, but it may not be. Any ideas where to find the answer? Not really. I'm not even sure it is "proven" that Index funds broadly...
by IlliniDave
Tue Jun 20, 2017 12:02 pm
Forum: Money Questions
Topic: Actual ways in which a large Index Fund / ETF could "blow up"
Replies: 44
Views: 1431

Re: Actual ways in which a large Index Fund / ETF could "blow up"

A quick google search shows that about 20% to 42% (!) of money in stocks is from index funds. But that number may over represent the large cap stocks (S&P 500 components). I'm wondering, could you reduce your exposure to a flash crash type "blow up" by focusing on ETFs full of securities that are *...
by IlliniDave
Tue Jun 20, 2017 11:54 am
Forum: Money Questions
Topic: Actual ways in which a large Index Fund / ETF could "blow up"
Replies: 44
Views: 1431

Re: Actual ways in which a large Index Fund / ETF could "blow up"

Traditional Index funds are really just mutual funds that are managed at the lowest end of the cost spectrum. So as individual funds they run the same risks as any other mutual funds. There is no magic to them, the return they provide is the same as the stock market(s) (or market('s) segments) they ...
by IlliniDave
Fri Jun 16, 2017 7:40 am
Forum: Housing Questions
Topic: What is Minimum Head Tax and/or Price of Liberty?
Replies: 37
Views: 1121

Re: What is Minimum Head Tax and/or Price of Liberty?

Free if you camp out permanently The only downside is you have to change camp sites at least once every two weeks in the national forests I'm familiar with that charge a flat entry fee rather than a per-night fee. And that's for primitive camping, not bring in your RV, hook up to power and water, a...
by IlliniDave
Fri Jun 16, 2017 7:38 am
Forum: Transportation Questions
Topic: Tips for driving on the highway with a cargo van?
Replies: 14
Views: 344

Re: Tips for driving on the highway with a cargo van?

You'll probably find driving on the highway much easier than winding through back roads. The above advice is of course good. Don't get impatient or in a hurry. Look at it as an adventure and embrace it.
by IlliniDave
Fri Jun 16, 2017 6:33 am
Forum: Politics, and other eternal disagreements
Topic: Trump - Clown Genius
Replies: 1999
Views: 141424

Re: Trump - Clown Genius

@dave Since the shooter was fond of MSNBC and Maddow and company, I glanced at their web page a minute ago. Nothing on their possible culpability, and the only story I could find (barely on the front page) about the shooting was Trump's statement on the congressman's condition. Plenty about Russia ...
by IlliniDave
Thu Jun 15, 2017 4:03 pm
Forum: Politics, and other eternal disagreements
Topic: Trump - Clown Genius
Replies: 1999
Views: 141424

Re: Trump - Clown Genius

So any thoughts on the attempted assassination of a group of Republican Congressman? If this dude had been competent with a gun and the security detail hadn't been present this would have been much, much worse. To be honest, I'm surprised Trump hasn't been a target yet, but I'm guessing the opportu...
by IlliniDave
Thu Jun 15, 2017 3:51 pm
Forum: Politics, and other eternal disagreements
Topic: Trump - Clown Genius
Replies: 1999
Views: 141424

Re: Trump - Clown Genius

Except, when it comes to picking politicians. I agree with your general premise except in principal we are picking leaders and politicking is only a part of the job. There isn't really a specific training/education/professional background for leaders. Politicians see themselves as leaders but the r...
by IlliniDave
Sun Jun 11, 2017 10:31 am
Forum: Money Questions
Topic: Most Challenging Obstacle in Personal Finance.
Replies: 46
Views: 2463

Re:

What have you found to be the most challenging obstacle in your personal finance journey? What was the hardest goal to achieve? Is there really anything hard about personal finance if you are following a solid system? -Maintaining faith and patience were the most challenging obstacles for me--it's ...
by IlliniDave
Fri Jun 09, 2017 5:54 pm
Forum: DIY Skills Questions
Topic: Two-step verification
Replies: 14
Views: 705

Re: Two-step verification

For the most part I use email. There are a couple things, like my 401k account that I might have to occasionally access from work that I use my cell phone for (can't access personal email from the office LAN).
by IlliniDave
Thu Jun 08, 2017 5:40 pm
Forum: Politics, and other eternal disagreements
Topic: Trump - Clown Genius
Replies: 1999
Views: 141424

Re: Trump - Clown Genius

However, I think in general most people prefer dealing with the person that has the highest talents for whatever problem they need to have solved, so that's typically the standard, that is, except when it comes to politics. That's fine to a point, but sometimes you need a General Grant or General P...
by IlliniDave
Thu Jun 08, 2017 5:22 pm
Forum: Politics, and other eternal disagreements
Topic: Trump - Clown Genius
Replies: 1999
Views: 141424

Re: Trump - Clown Genius

And McCain must have been drunk or something, not just because of the convoluted questioning but because he seemed to be defending Trump. When did they kiss and make up? Did I miss it? Heck I even heard Piers Morgan somewhat espousing some of Trumps's positions while being pretty hard on the Mayor ...
by IlliniDave
Wed Jun 07, 2017 3:26 pm
Forum: Politics, and other eternal disagreements
Topic: Trump - Clown Genius
Replies: 1999
Views: 141424

Re: Trump - Clown Genius

@jacob, this has been in the news since before the election, along with predictions of reduced visitors (even your links implied that) and spending. http://www.reuters.com/article/us-tourism-dollar-idUSKBN0KT1D920150120 Most overseas tourist/recreational travel is not impulsive, so to me it doesn't ...
by IlliniDave
Wed Jun 07, 2017 11:49 am
Forum: Politics, and other eternal disagreements
Topic: Trump - Clown Genius
Replies: 1999
Views: 141424

Re: Trump - Clown Genius

This is definitely true in the short-term and mostly for the medium-term. It's the long-term macro impacts that really worry me. For instance, as noted in other posts, there is a growing apprehension from the rest of the world about the US. This is causing significantly lower numbers of foreign tou...
by IlliniDave
Wed Jun 07, 2017 8:52 am
Forum: Politics, and other eternal disagreements
Topic: Trump - Clown Genius
Replies: 1999
Views: 141424

Re: Trump - Clown Genius

The winners are our media. Yes, readership, subscriptions and viewership for all media critical of the President appear to be up. The tweeting has been a boon. But the real winners during power shifts are generally pretty quiet except within their own news eco-systems. Here, its the extractive reso...
by IlliniDave
Tue Jun 06, 2017 6:12 am
Forum: Politics, and other eternal disagreements
Topic: Trump - Clown Genius
Replies: 1999
Views: 141424

Re: Trump - Clown Genius

I heard a new (to me) political term: "radical centrist". The contextual implication from the hard-left utterer (I say hard-left because she appeared not to approve of the "soft-left") was that it s a villainous attribute. Since taking the diction at face value makes it almost an oxymoron to my appa...
by IlliniDave
Mon Jun 05, 2017 3:03 pm
Forum: Politics, and other eternal disagreements
Topic: Trump - Clown Genius
Replies: 1999
Views: 141424

Re: Trump - Clown Genius

Isn't the fact that our culture has changed the reason for his election, not something he is causing? I see him as a symptom. This I think is accurate, maybe that *he* is not the symptom per se, but certainly his election was a symptom. In my moderate-length life I never remember the two political ...
by IlliniDave
Mon Jun 05, 2017 1:05 pm
Forum: Politics, and other eternal disagreements
Topic: Trump - Clown Genius
Replies: 1999
Views: 141424

Re: Trump - Clown Genius

Hopefully, as Jenny noted, this scares both parties straight, but that seems like taking your life savings to the casino and placing it all on one spin of the roulette wheel. Sure, it could work, but it's not likely. Well, that would be nice but both parties seem to be disintegrating. I don't think...